Afghanistan’s unexpected victory over England on Wednesday has set the stage for an exciting conclusion to Group B in the ICC Champions Trophy. Their win has brought them within striking distance of the top two teams, South Africa and Australia, as they now sit just one point behind the leaders. With their next match against Australia on Friday at Lahore’s Gaddafi Stadium, Afghanistan poses a real threat to the reigning ODI champions.

Meanwhile, England’s fate has been sealed with their elimination from the competition, and their final match against South Africa on Saturday at Karachi’s National Stadium will be a mere formality for them.

Scenarios for Group B’s Final Matches

The last two matches in Group B will play a significant role in determining which teams progress to the semi-finals. Here’s a breakdown of the scenarios, based on different outcomes from the Australia vs Afghanistan and England vs South Africa games.

Australia vs Afghanistan: Key Match for Both Teams

• If Afghanistan wins: Afghanistan will reach four points, securing their spot in the semi-finals. This would leave Australia on three points, and they would have to wait for the result of the England-South Africa match to determine if they qualify.
• If Australia wins: The ODI champions will qualify for the semi-finals with five points, knocking Afghanistan out of the tournament. In this case, the England vs South Africa match will become irrelevant for Group B.
• If the match is washed out: Australia will qualify for the semis with four points, while Afghanistan will remain on three points. Afghanistan’s qualification will depend on the result of the final match between England and South Africa.

England vs South Africa: Final Decider for Group B

This match will have implications for the semi-finals only if Australia loses to Afghanistan or if the game is washed out. Let’s look at the possible outcomes:

• If England wins after an Australia defeat: England will earn a consolation victory, leaving both Australia and South Africa with three points. The net run-rate (NRR) will then determine which of the two teams will join Afghanistan in the semi-finals.
• If England wins after an Australia-Afghanistan washout: Australia will qualify with four points, while the second semi-final spot will be decided by NRR between South Africa and Afghanistan, both having three points.
• If South Africa wins after an Australia defeat: South Africa will enter the semi-finals with five points, joining Afghanistan, who will have four points.
• If South Africa wins after the Australia-Afghanistan washout: South Africa will reach five points, qualifying for the semis alongside Australia, who will be on four points.
• If there’s a washout after Australia’s defeat: South Africa and Afghanistan will both end up with four points, and both teams will qualify for the semi-finals.
• If both matches are washed out: South Africa and Australia will move to the semi-finals with four points each, while Afghanistan will be left behind on three points.

What’s at Stake?

The race to the semi-finals is tighter than ever. Afghanistan, after their stunning win over England, has given themselves a genuine chance of advancing, but they must overcome a tough challenge in Australia. The final outcomes in Group B will likely come down to the net run-rate, as multiple teams could finish with the same number of points. Every ball counts, and with weather conditions still a factor, anything can happen in these crucial last matches.

Which team do you think will make it through to the semi-finals? Will Afghanistan continue their surprise run, or will Australia and South Africa maintain their dominance? Only time will tell as the competition heats up.