An asteroid once considered one of the biggest impact risks in history has officially been reclassified as harmless. New data confirms that asteroid 2024 YR4 poses no threat to Earth, eliminating previous concerns about a potential collision.
Astronomers initially estimated the asteroid had a 1 in 32 chance of impact. However, updated observations on February 23, 2025, have completely ruled out any risk. As a result, the asteroid has been downgraded to Torino Scale Level Zero, meaning it no longer requires any concern or monitoring.
How the Impact Risk Was Recalculated
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory originally classified 2024 YR4 at Level 3 on the Torino Scale. This rating signaled a low but notable probability of impact, requiring continued observation.
Early calculations suggested a 1% or greater chance of collision in 2032, sparking widespread interest among astronomers. However, after refining its orbit data, scientists have now reduced the impact probability to 1 in 20,000 (0.00005%)—effectively zero.
“That’s impact probability zero, folks!” said Richard Binzel, the MIT professor who created the Torino Scale, in an interview with Space.com.
Why Early Estimates Were Uncertain
Astronomers explain that initial warnings were due to limited tracking data. Small errors in early observations can make a potential impact seem more likely than it really is.
David Rankin, an asteroid hunter with the Catalina Sky Survey, compared the process to shifting a long stick by a fraction of an inch—a small change at one end can cause a massive difference at the other.
With additional tracking, these uncertainties were gradually eliminated, confirming that 2024 YR4 will safely pass Earth in 2032. The asteroid, which measures about 50 meters in diameter, will come no closer than 167,000 miles—well outside any danger zone.
Why This Matters
Scientists emphasize that this case highlights the importance of continuous asteroid monitoring. Regular observations help refine calculations, ensuring that potential threats are identified early and accurately assessed.
For now, 2024 YR4 has officially been removed from the risk list—a reassuring update for astronomers and the public alike. 🌍☄️
